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Wimbledon Men's Final Preview: History beckons for FedererSerene progress to grand slam glory is on the cards for Swiss maestro, says Barry Milns.
Andy Roddick could be viewed as public enemy No.1 having upstaged the other Andy and extended Britain's long barren spell in the men's singles for another year at least. But judging by the overwhelming ovation he was given on Centre Court after his semi-final triumph he will return to it as a very well supported challenger to Roger Federer's historic bid.
Beaten by the Swiss maestro in all three of their previous Wimbledon encounters, including the 2004 and 2005 finals, as well as on 15 other occasions in their 20-match rivalry, Roddick will start as the clear underdog. The 26-year-old American is currently trading at 8.8 to win his second major title, while Federer, who is a year older, goes into his 20th grand slam final as the 1.12 favourite to surpass Pete Sampras and win a record 15th major crown.
There is no doubt that after winning that elusive French Open title last month, a serene Federer has made an almost impeccable bid to regain this title he lost so sensationally last year to the now absent Rafael Nadal. Losing a third set tiebreak to Philipp Kohlschreiber in the third round was Federer's only lapse in concentration in a run through to a seventh successive final that has taken him only 11-and-a-half hours to make.
In marked contrast, Roddick's 15-hour slog that has taken a further five sets to achieve, including a near four-hour epic with former champion Lleyton Hewitt in the quarterfinals. But one of the first things he did when he teamed up with new coach Larry Stefanki was to lose weight and get fitter than he has ever been before, so as with his excellent recovery after the Hewitt match I expect with a day's rest after beating Murray he should be fine again to face Federer, which he will definitely need to be.
Up to this point their respective match stats include:
Federer - 77 aces, 67.83% average First Serves In, 40.7% Break Point Conversions, Own Serve Broken 3 times, 239 Winners, 71 Unforced Errors
Roddick - 160 aces, 72% average First Serves In, 30.5% Break Points Conversions, Own Serve Broken 10 times, 331 Winners, 112 Unforced Errors
You can currently get slightly better odds on Roddick hitting more aces (2.06) than Federer (1.9) and considering how great both are at serving the chances of at least one tie break seem high, with all three of their previous Wimbledon encounters including one tie break and 12 of their 20 career encounters doing so too. The Total Tiebreak Market is currently offering odds of 3.35 No Tie Breaks, 2.22 One Tie Break Only, 4.1 Two Tie Breaks Only, 13.0 Three Tie Breaks Only, 34.0 Four Tie Breaks.
While Federer, no longer burdened by another French Open failure, has clearly clicked back into top gear, oozing class and control with every graceful step around Centre Court, Roddick's own game has improved significantly in some key areas. He has also been playing throughout the fortnight with more patience and control of his emotions, hitting his forehand with greater ferocity, so too his double-handed backhand and volleying better than we have ever seen him do before.
So to that end while Roddick will have to serve big again and volley well behind it, I can also see him mixing up the points and approaches better than he has done in the past, not charging in regardless and offering Federer an easy target to pass. Having said that, we saw how well Federer returned Ivo Karlovic's huge serves in the quarterfinals and how his forehand has caned one opponent after another throughout the fortnight.
With the record (and regaining the world No.1 ranking) on the line I expect Federer to play exceptionally again and only show some nerves (as he did in Paris) when he gets close to the finish line. Federer has also won all seven of his previous matches against Roddick in the majors, five of them in straight sets and while the American undoubtedly deserves his shot at the trophy, I think he'll be very hard pushed to win a set here with Federer currently trading at 1.98 to win in three, 3.65 to do it in four and (9.8) to take it in five.
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